Thinkbox
Let’s face it: there’s no one-size-fits-all tool for planning media campaigns. Maybe in years to come AI will progress to a stage where something like this is possible but, until that point, humans remain in the driving seat when it comes to media investment decisions.
That’s why it’s important to say up front: the Media Mix Navigator (MMN) isn’t the definitive answer to all your media questions. Think of it as a guidebook, not a rulebook - a starting point for figuring out where your budgets will work hardest. It’s here to help, but don’t expect it to have the final say on every decision.
How the MMN Works (in a nutshell)
At its core, the MMN is all about balancing your media budget for maximum bang-for-buck in the short term. It uses category average diminishing return curves (courtesy of the Profit Ability 2 databank) to recommend how to split your investment across different media channels.
Here’s the gist: diminishing return curves show how the payoff (profit/revenue) starts to taper off as you invest more money into a channel. If short-term profit is your main mission, the MMN can give you a good idea of how to divvy things up.
But—and it’s a big but—short-term profit isn’t the only goal in town.
Where the MMN needs a helping hand
Autos Example
For your average car brand, the MMN might suggests 56% for linear TV and 5% for BVOD, so that is a TV investment that’s 92% linear / 8% BVOD. That’s quite a departure from the industry norm of splitting TV investment into 75% linear and 25% BVOD.
Why? Because linear TV’s scale and very low cost per exposure is highly effective at selling cars – but crucially, it skews older and – guess what? – it’s older people who buy new cars. So linear is prioritised over BVOD in the MMN, as this is what the diminishing return curves suggest if maximum return is our only goal.
However, weird though it may sound, maximum return should not be the only goal. Auto brands still need to make sure they’re reaching younger audiences – if the first time you see an ad for Mercedes is in your 50s then Mercedes has reached you too late. It may not be as profitable in the short-term to reach future buyers, but it’s essential for future business success. So, this is where the outputs from the MMN need to be overlayed with other marketing / planning objectives.
FMCG Example
FMCG brands face a similar story to Autos. The MMN recommends putting 68% of your budget into linear TV and 7% into BVOD.
Why? As FMCG products are bought by pretty much everyone, the math of TV viewing patterns and pricing is that it’s really cost effective to reach older audiences and less cost effective to reach younger audiences. If you plot a chart for a typical FMCG brand of TV ROI by age it would progressively increase as the audience got older – so as a tool that is looking to maximise profit/revenue, the MMN favours the channel that delivers the most return.
But… FMCG brands (which only really generate profit through repeat habitual purchase patterns) need to future proof their businesses, so to a degree they have to sacrifice some profit by investing more in channels that skew younger.
Why can’t the tool just do it all?
Great question! Wouldn’t it be lovely if we could just plug in all our objectives and have MMN spit out the perfect plan? Sadly, life (and data) isn’t that simple. Here’s why:
- Data gaps: The MMN works with big-picture inputs—media spend, exposures, and national-level sales data. It’s great for the macro view but doesn’t have the granularity to factor in regional goals, audience nuances, or softer metrics like brand awareness.
- Marketing complexity: Marketing isn’t just numbers; it’s also about feelings, perceptions, and long-term goals. Those intangible elements are tricky for a tool to model but crucial for crafting a great campaign.
- The human factor: Let’s not forget the role of experience and instinct. No tool—no matter how clever—can replicate the judgment of a seasoned media planner.
In summary
There is nuance to media investment decisions that fall outside of pure short-term return potential.
This doesn’t diminish the value of a planning aid such as the MMN; it’s better to have a robust starting point, that’s centred on what is most often the primary goal of advertising, namely the desire to drive incremental revenue or profit.
But, this needs to then pass through a broader lens of objectives. It needs a human to weigh up the other considerations at play and deliver a media plan that takes into consideration all the subtle factors that well versed, experienced media planners are paid to think about.
